Behind the hype–2010 sales figures
The release of the February and year-to-date sales figures was accompanied by the usual chorus of hype that accompanies these announcements. With the positive spins given to the sales figures, it was hard at a glance to understand what they truly meant.
- Chrysler Group LLC Reports February 2010 U.S. Sales Increase Slightly
- Chevrolet, Buick, GMC and Cadillac Retail Sales Up 3 Percent–Total Sales for These Brands Up 30 Percent
- Ford’s U.S. Sales Up 43 Percent
- Toyota/Lexus/Scion Among Industry Leaders in Many February 2010 Sales Categories
To the hype, I say, “So what?” Comparing the first months of 2010 with 2009 is silly. We’ve seen such turmoil in the market over the past 15 months that these figures are almost meaningless for comparing. At the basic sense they show that people are more comfortable making large expenditures now than they were last year, when the stock market was experiencing a Titanic-like plunge and the daily drumbeat of bad financial news never seemed to stop.
But there are some very interesting numbers if you look back to the months before The Great 21st-century Recession took hold: early 2008 and 2007.
| Automaker |
February 2010
|
February 2009
|
February 2008
|
February 2007
|
| BMW Group |
18,000
|
15,835
|
24,227
|
24,677
|
| Chrysler Group |
84,449
|
84,050
|
150,093
|
174,506
|
| Diamler AG |
15,838
|
15,628
|
19,628
|
17,326
|
| Ford Motor Co. |
142,006
|
99,050
|
196,060
|
210,170
|
| General Motors |
141,535
|
126,170
|
268,737
|
308,411
|
| American Honda |
80,671
|
71,575
|
115,397
|
110,026
|
| Hyundai-Kia |
58,056
|
52,694
|
53,078
|
58,012
|
| Nissan North America |
70,189
|
54,249
|
86,219
|
85,218
|
| Subaru |
18,098
|
13,089
|
12,907
|
12,790
|
| Toyota Motor Sales |
100,027
|
109,582
|
182,169
|
187,330
|
| VW Group of America |
24,427
|
18,382
|
22,939
|
23,370
|
| Total US light vehicles* |
780,463
|
689,082
|
176,319
|
1,255,314
|
*Totals for light vehicles include manufacturers not listed in chart. All figures from Automotive News.
As you can see, a few manufacturers have even reached and surpassed their numbers from back in February 2007 and 2008.
- Hyundai-Kia had a negligible gain compared with 2/07, but a 9 percent gain compared with 2/08 sales figures.
- Subaru saw gains of 42 percent compared with 2/07 and 40 percent improvement over 2/08.
- Volkswagen Group increased sales by 4 percent over 2/07 and 6 percent over 2/08.
- Despite its challenges, Chrysler appears to have held its own. However, Automotive News reports that 58 percent of Chrysler sales this February went to fleets, rather than consumers. These are low-margin sales that are not sustainable.
In contrast, the major manufacturers with hyped February 2010 sales figures are still down significantly compared with February 2007 and 2008 sales:
- Chrysler–down 52 percent and 44 percent, respectively
- Ford–down 32 percent and 28 percent
- General Motors–down 54 percent and 47 percent
- Honda–down 27 percent and 30 percent
- Toyota–down 47 percent and 45 percent
As a whole, the industry is down 38 percent compared with 2/07, and down 34 percent compared with 2/08.
So what does this mean? That I’m just raining on parades and want to spoil good news? Not at all. It’s an impressive showing that auto sales have recovered so well compared with the utter turmoil of just one year ago.
However, the hype that accompanies these numbers is overlooking the fact that this industry still has a long way to go to reach the sales of 2007 and 2008. And there is much debate about whether those numbers will be seen in the near term.
In the end, any sales increase is a positive indicator about the comfort buyers have with spending money. A rise in car sales could be a sign that the economy is stabilizing and maybe even improving. And the road to recovery is often driven upon with new cars.
Filed under: Cars on March 17th, 2010
